High prices in 2016/17 encourages cotton area expansion in 2017/18

Washington, USA – High cotton prices have prevailed in 2016/17, which are expected to encourage farmers to expand the area under cotton by 5% to 30.8 million hectares in 2017/18. India’s cotton area is forecast to increase by 7% to 11.3 million hectares in 2017/18 as farmers are encouraged by better returns due to high cotton prices and improved yields in 2016/17. Assuming yield is similar to the five-year average, production could increase by 3% to just under six million tons. After contracting in the last five seasons, China’s cotton area may expand by 3% to 2.9 million hectares due to the stable cotton policy and high cotton prices. Production in China is expected to rise by 1% to 4.8 million tons, the first increase in five seasons. Farmers in the United States are forecast to expand harvested cotton area by12% to 4.3 million hectares, and assuming a yield of 938 kg/ha, production could grow by 8% to 4 million tons. Unlike the other top cotton producers, area in Uzbekistan is expected to contract by 4% to 1.2 million hectares in accordance with government plans to reduce areas where yields are low, and use them for other agricultural products.However, plentiful soil moisture may improve the average yield by 1% to 638 kg/ha, which will limit the loss in output. Uzbekistan’s cotton production is projected to decline by 2% to 770,000 tons. Anticipating falling cotton prices in early 2017/18, cotton area expansion may be more limited for producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere.