Stitching success - exploring the future of clothing and footwear in Sub-Saharan Africa

Income dynamics, shopping patterns, and urbanization effects in Sub-Saharan Africa

In Sub-Saharan Africa, individuals demonstrate a heightened awareness of the costs associated with clothing and footwear. The majority of households in this area earn an annual income of less than $5,000, which isn’t substantial, leading them to carefully monitor their spending. As the years progress, more individuals will begin to earn higher incomes, and the population will continue its growth. Additionally, an increasing number of individuals will continue to migrate to cities. As a consequence, more shops selling clothes and shoes will open up.

Comparing Spending: Southern Africa, West Africa, and East Africa

In Southern Africa, there is a higher expenditure on clothes and shoes compared to West Africa, where clothing holds greater importance than in East Africa. Overall, the clothing and footwear market in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow, especially for the more affordable options, over the next 10–20 years.

Country Spending: Nigeria Leads, Followed by South Africa

In 2024, Nigeria is expected to spend the most on clothes and shoes, around $17.9 billion. This is because Nigeria has a large population, about 229.2 million people. South Africa comes next, spending about $9.6 billion. South Africa’s higher income levels contribute to this spending. In East Africa, Ethiopia and Tanzania have the fourth and fifth largest spending, around $3.9 billion and $3.6 billion respectively, because they have large populations too. However, countries like Zambia, Zimbabwe, Namibia, and Botswana in Southern Africa spend less, all expected to spend less than $500 million in total on clothes and shoes in 2024, mainly because they have smaller populations.

Botswana Leads in Per Capita Spending

In Southern Africa, even though people spend less overall on clothes and shoes, they spend more per person (per capita) compared to other regions. For example, in 2024, Botswana is expected to have the highest per person spending at $185, followed by South Africa at $157.6, and Namibia at $145.8. In West Africa, countries like Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria spend more per person than those in East Africa. On average, in East Africa, countries like Sudan, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda, people spend just $37.7 per person on clothes and shoes.

Ghana Set to Surpass South Africa in Per Capita Spending

Over the next few years (from 2023 to 2027), Ghana’s spending on clothes and shoes is expected to grow the fastest, increasing by about 11% every year. By 2027, this will push Ghana’s per person spending to $192.6, making it the second-highest spender after Botswana and ahead of South Africa.

South Africa Predicted to Lead in Disposable Income in 2024

In Sub-Saharan Africa, disposable income — referring to the money people have left after essential expenses like food, housing, and transportation — is generally low. This low disposable income heavily influences how much people can spend on clothes and shoes. In 2024, South Africa is expected to have the highest average disposable income, around $10,349, which is nearly double that of the next highest country, Botswana, at $5,681. Both South Africa and Botswana are predicted to have the highest spending per person on clothes and shoes in 2024. Conversely, the other 11 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are forecasted to have average disposable incomes of less than $5,000 in 2024.

While open-air markets currently dominate, a shift towards formal stores is anticipated as incomes rise and shopping preferences evolve in Sub-Saharan Africa. Image: The Metric

Anticipated Increase in Retail Store Construction

In Sub-Saharan Africa, people frequently shop for clothes at open-air markets, where second-hand clothes represent the most affordable option. However, as incomes are projected to rise over the next couple of decades and with the construction of more shopping centres, it is expected that people will increasingly opt to purchase higher-priced clothing from formal stores. 

Surge in Demand for Trendy Clothes Projected

The burgeoning and youthful population in Sub-Saharan Africa is attracting fashion retailers to the region. In 2015, the population stood at just over 1 billion, and by 2024, it is anticipated to reach 1.27 billion. By 2050, projections suggest it will surpass 2.19 billion, establishing a significant and expanding pool of potential customers. While low incomes may constrain spending capacities, there is a likelihood of increasing demand for more affordable clothing across the region in the coming years. The expanding population also implies a larger working-age cohort. By 2024, it is anticipated that half of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population will be under 20 years old. With improvements in healthcare access and the availability of jobs in sectors beyond agriculture and mining, there will be a growing number of young adults (aged 20 to 39) seeking trendy apparel. Moreover, since many of these young adults are embarking on their careers and do not yet have dependents, they will have more disposable income to allocate towards items such as clothing and footwear.

Increased rural-to-urban migration to benefit retailers

Though reaching everyone remains challenging, there is a notable trend of rural-to-urban migration in Sub-Saharan Africa. In 2024, less than half of the population, approximately 46.6%, will reside in cities. However, by 2050, this figure is expected to rise significantly to 59.7%. Countries such as Botswana, Angola, South Africa, Ghana, Cameroon, and Namibia are projected to have over 70% of their populations living in cities. This demographic shift presents significant opportunities for retailers, as they can strategically establish their stores and distribution centers to access a larger customer base.

Bright prospects await makers and retailers of trendy fashion — consumers in tomorrow’s Sub-Saharan Africa will be demanding these. Image: Fred Footwear

The future of fashion in Sub-Saharan Africa — population growth paving the way for a brighter tomorrow

With a growing population and a dynamic retail landscape, the future of the clothing and footwear industry in Sub-Saharan Africa looks promising, offering ample opportunities for manufacturers, retailers and consumers alike. Increasing disposable incomes, demographic shifts, and evolving consumer preferences are additional factors that will positively impact the region and fashion sector alike.

Acknowledgements: This article is based on insights from “2023. The New Fashion Paradigm: Global Trends Transforming Retail — 19 December 2023. London: Fitch Solutions Group Limited, Dec 19 ABI/INFORM Collection.”