SAFLIA: Hopefully the slide will be reversed
Published: 22nd Nov 2024
Jirka Vymĕtal…Import growth a bad sign.
Durban, KZN, SA – My forecast for 2024 is that production will be 12.5% down on last year. Meaning 41,690,000 pairs.
The last time we saw such low volumes was in 2007.
My forecast for next year is that production will be stabilised at the same level as this year – let’s say 42,000,000 pairs. However, with some serious interventions which I hope will take place W.E.F. January 2025, we hope to see a bit of growth again to hopefully at least the 2023 level, i.e. 45,000,000 pairs.
Imports (by volume) will grow again this year by about 15% (a bad sign) and my forecast for next year will be another 10% growth on this year if I follow the trend line.
The apparent end of load shedding has made a big difference to the productivity of manufacturers – that’s a positive.
The two-pot retirement system has been an unexpected benefit to manufacturers who have been unable to afford large-scale retrenchments. Because so many staff have resigned to be able to access their retirement funds, workforces have been ‘right sized’ by accident. And as some of those workers look to go back to work, manufacturers are able to pick only the people they really need.
Tags: Jirka Vymětal, SAFLIA
- The Road Ahead: A forecast for South Africa’s footwear and leather goods industries
Durban, KZN, SA – The South African footwear and leather goods industries are navigating a challenging yet potentially transformative period. Shaped by a mix of longstanding hurdles and emerging opportunities, their future remains uncertain as the global market continues to shift rapidly in the wake of COVID-19. While difficulties p ...moreAMSA: ‘Perturbing trend’ in imports
Durban, KZN, SA – As the economy still seems to be precariously poised due to various exogenous variables, I remain very cautious about looking into the future.The formal sector of the economy has not fared well in terms of employment as measured by Clothing Industry Bargaining Council figures (see attached chart).It appears that th ...moreNCRF: ‘A very complicated stew’
Cape Town, W. Cape, SA – The NCRF has 10 members with very different approaches to all sorts of things, so a forecast is difficult.We’re keeping an eye on factors including reduced interest rates, the two-pot retirement system, and political outcomes, and there is a degree of optimism, but I’m not willing to attach any f ...more- 2025 FORECASTSBy common consent, 2024 has been a difficult year for almost all businesses, organisations, government departments and people in the SA leather value chain. The main exceptions would have been successful exporters, because the domestic market has been getting poorer year after year. The underlying reasons are mostly to do with the policie ...more
Footwear Industry Articles
- How FootJoy’s superbly crafted shoes influenced my life
An Informative & Nostalgic Letter written in April 2025 to two executives at Acushnet (USA) – A leading golf corporation which includes FootJoy Shoes.RE: FootJoy & II recall the very first pair of FootJoy golf shoes my late father bought for me in July 1976. This wasn’t my first interaction with the brand that I had al ...moreManufacturer-buyer event: Results still to be tallied, but broad enthusiasm for more
The 2-day Retail Buyer Engagement & Manufacturer Onboarding Programme on 01 and 02 July was part of an effort to kickstart the R-CTFL Masterplan – which, from a footwear perspective at least, has appeared stalled.It was sponsored by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and implemented through the R-CTFL Masterplan Footwea ...moreVermont sale completedJohannesburg, Gauteng, SA – After 39 years, former owner Mandy Owen has sold her shares in Vermont Leathercraft Manufacturers (Pty) Ltd to Creek Lab (Pty) Ltd, and officially handed over the business to Prashant Bhaga.In a message on LinkedIn, she wrote: “I would like to thank my husband, Graham, for his invaluable contributio ...more
Leather Industry Articles
- ‘FMD is here to stay – we have to learn to live with it and manage it’
Pretoria, Gauteng, SA – FMD is no longer a series of isolated outbreaks; it has become a national systemic risk, and we need to shift our mindset from emergency response to living with and managing FMD responsibly. The pressure is already showing in the numbers. Our latest figures show cattle slaughter down 12% and sheep slaughter d ...moreISTT offers free entry level leather course to encourage trainingGrahamstown, E. Cape, SA – The International School of Tanning Technology (ISTT) is offering one of its short online courses, Introduction to the Leather Industry, for free.The course is suitable for entry level tannery staff.It is also suitable for anyone in footwear, leather goods, furniture and upholstery manufacturing, retailing ...more
PPE Industry Articles
- More precise fire extinguishing from the air using simulation and sensor data
Wildfires are becoming more frequent and more intense worldwide. Fires often become infernos due to heat, drought and wind, especially in the summer. The problem is compounded by the climate crisis. Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics ITWM and the startup CAURUS Technologies GmbH are responding to this growi ...moreNew OHS regulations coming into force later this year mean PPE needs to be reviewed, too
In March 2025, the Physical Agents Regulations (and their guidelines) and the Noise Exposure Regulations (and their guidelines) of the OHSAct were published, with an 18-month time-period promulgation date to September 2026, allowing employers time to upgrade their Health & Safety requirements to comply with the new published regulatio ...moreProtecting the workforce: The critical role of PPE
Personal protective equipment (PPE) is utilised in a work-environment as part of a larger prevention plan, because on its own protection is limited and may even provide a false sense of protection.An occupational disease prevention plan must be an actionable approach that identifies workplace health hazards, evaluates exposure, and i ...more
© S&V Publications
