SAFLIA: Hopefully the slide will be reversed
Published: 22nd Nov 2024
Jirka Vymĕtal…Import growth a bad sign.
Durban, KZN, SA – My forecast for 2024 is that production will be 12.5% down on last year. Meaning 41,690,000 pairs.
The last time we saw such low volumes was in 2007.
My forecast for next year is that production will be stabilised at the same level as this year – let’s say 42,000,000 pairs. However, with some serious interventions which I hope will take place W.E.F. January 2025, we hope to see a bit of growth again to hopefully at least the 2023 level, i.e. 45,000,000 pairs.
Imports (by volume) will grow again this year by about 15% (a bad sign) and my forecast for next year will be another 10% growth on this year if I follow the trend line.
The apparent end of load shedding has made a big difference to the productivity of manufacturers – that’s a positive.
The two-pot retirement system has been an unexpected benefit to manufacturers who have been unable to afford large-scale retrenchments. Because so many staff have resigned to be able to access their retirement funds, workforces have been ‘right sized’ by accident. And as some of those workers look to go back to work, manufacturers are able to pick only the people they really need.
Tags: Jirka Vymětal, SAFLIA
- The Road Ahead: A forecast for South Africa’s footwear and leather goods industries
Durban, KZN, SA – The South African footwear and leather goods industries are navigating a challenging yet potentially transformative period. Shaped by a mix of longstanding hurdles and emerging opportunities, their future remains uncertain as the global market continues to shift rapidly in the wake of COVID-19. While difficulties p ...moreAMSA: ‘Perturbing trend’ in imports
Durban, KZN, SA – As the economy still seems to be precariously poised due to various exogenous variables, I remain very cautious about looking into the future.The formal sector of the economy has not fared well in terms of employment as measured by Clothing Industry Bargaining Council figures (see attached chart).It appears that th ...moreNCRF: ‘A very complicated stew’
Cape Town, W. Cape, SA – The NCRF has 10 members with very different approaches to all sorts of things, so a forecast is difficult.We’re keeping an eye on factors including reduced interest rates, the two-pot retirement system, and political outcomes, and there is a degree of optimism, but I’m not willing to attach any f ...more- 2025 FORECASTSBy common consent, 2024 has been a difficult year for almost all businesses, organisations, government departments and people in the SA leather value chain. The main exceptions would have been successful exporters, because the domestic market has been getting poorer year after year. The underlying reasons are mostly to do with the policie ...more
Footwear Industry Articles
- Ken Riches: Reflections on an extraordinary life: Those who can, do – those who can do it even better, teach
It’s been 18 years this month since Ken Riches died. Here is a glimpse into what lay under that fairly protective exterior.Ken Riches, one of our country’s true footwear experts, passed peacefully on to that final production line in the sky on 11 August 2008. He had lived through the rapidly changing times from just after the ...moreGrey Street – memories of an 80s GenX cool dude
Jonathan Commons, our webmaster, grew up in the Durban of the 1980s. He has a great affection for the Grey Street outfitters of the era, and he wrote these recollections.Oddly enough the news item about the closure of Jay's Outfitters triggered a bit of nostalgia for the good old days when, as a teenager in the 80s, one could hitchhike do ...moreNew generation nonwoven components lead the way towards biodegradable shoes
Compostable and biodegradable footwear is becoming a reality.The nova-Institut für politische und ökologische Innovation GmbH in Hürth, Germany, has published an updated version of its poster, 'Biodegradable Polymers in Various Environments', and project manager Kristijan Mršić told Shoes & Views that several of ...more
Leather Industry Articles
- OBLIQUITY
Shareholder value is usually the result of running a good business, not a reliable operational principle for running one ...moreWhen communication moves faster than truth: Why credible, evidence-based information matters more than ever.We have never had more information at our fingertips. We have also never had to work quite so hard to determine which information we should trust. Communication today moves at extraordinary speed. Social media platforms, digital news, corporate communications, industry reports and, increasingly, artificial intelligence allow information t ...moreNigeria’s Leather Industry: Not a clear picture
Nigeria is widely accepted as having a very large livestock population, but a relatively small tanning industry, much of it concentrated in Kano, producing high grade goat- and sheepskin crust which is exported for finishing elsewhere for use in garments.Recent articles cast some doubt on this, so are Nigeria’s hides and skins: M ...more
PPE Industry Articles
- Obituary: Colin Battle, agent (17/04/1957-27/07/2026): Our sales trips were a whole life experience
Dearest Lee, Greg & Sammy,I send my sincerest condolences & wishes of long and healthy lives to all of you, after the passing of your beloved Colin. I’ve no doubt that once the pain of losing an adored husband and father starts to subside, you will be left the glorious memories of your lives together with a most wonderful an ...more2nd SA PPE conference being planned for 2027 under the heading ‘Smart protection: the next era of PPE’Johannesburg, Gauteng, SA – Technology, artificial intelligence, connected devices and data are transforming the way we think about personal protection equipment — from how PPE is procured and selected, to how it is used, monitored and managed in the workplace.After the successful launch of the South African PPE conference hel ...moreProtecting the workforce: The critical role of PPE
Personal protective equipment (PPE) is utilised in a work-environment as part of a larger prevention plan, because on its own protection is limited and may even provide a false sense of protection.An occupational disease prevention plan must be an actionable approach that identifies workplace health hazards, evaluates exposure, and i ...more
© S&V Publications
