Following Trump’s tariff hikes, can mass shoe production actually be moved to the US? The answer is – it’s not that simple.

President Trump’s escalation on Wednesday with the announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs have sparked a lot of questions and concerns among the footwear industry.

One of these questions that are top of mind for many is: how realistic is it to bring shoe manufacturing back to the States? The answer is – it’s not that simple.

99% of the shoes sold in the United States are imported from primarily China, Vietnam and Indonesia. According to data from the American Apparel & Footwear Association (AAFA), 61.9% of all shoe imports come from China, followed by 21.4% hailing from Vietnam. Indonesia (6.9%), Cambodia (3.9%) and India (1.3%) round out the top 5 shoe importers to the U.S.

“The footwear ecosystem doesn’t really exist here,” Pepper Harward, chief executive officer of Oka Brands, formerly known as Okabashi, which produces its own footwear in its factory in Buford, Ga. and also manufactures shoes for brands like New Balance and Ryka via a sustainable closed-loop system, told FN in an interview last year. “It’s hard to build out our supply chains.”

“We’ve had conversations with a lot of brands,” Harward said. “Everybody’s interested in U.S. manufacturing but very few people are fully committed to it or have solid justifications for making investments there.”

The cost of labour is also another hurdle for made in America footwear. Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that the labour-intensive nature of manufacturing of footwear in general as well as the complexity of sports shoes lends itself to production in low labour-cost regions.

“The sensitivity of brands to the quality of labour regulations means that Vietnam has been a popular production centre, avoiding some of the challenges the generic apparel sector has faced in places like Bangladesh and Myanmar,” Rogers noted.

And Vietnam is one of the countries hit hardest by Trump’s newest tariffs. For Vietnam, the new total Trump is taxing the country is 46%, also representing a “discount” to the 90% levied on U.S. exports, according to the President.

But there could be relief coming in the Vietnam situation.

Following Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement this week, Vietnam’s trade ministry asked the president to postpone the 46% increase in duties by up to 3 months and engage in further negotiations to address the country’s trade imbalance with the U.S.

Taking to Truth Social on Friday, Trump indicated that he’s open to considering a bilateral trade deal with the Asian nation.

“Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S.” he wrote. “I thanked him on behalf of our Country, and said I look forward to a meeting in the near future.”

So how realistic is it to move supply chains closer to home? Rogers added that it would take some time.

“Footwear supply chains can typically be moved within a couple of years, depending on the degree of vertical integration required, though that is dependent on having a readily available, skilled workforce as well as supportive business regulations and logistics networks,” Rogers said. “In reality though firms plan on a 5-year cycle for making significant geographic changes.”

And there is, in fact, an uptick in companies inquiring about what it would take to implement U.S. shoe production. In a recent catch up with Oka Brands’ Harward earlier this year, more interest in made in the USA footwear is increasing due to Trump’s new tariff plans.

Harward noted that before 2024, the pandemic and its accompanying supply chain meltdown had already spurred strong interest in local manufacturing. On top of that, more brands have been keen to cut down on carbon emissions from air fuel and have more control over their supply chain. Given the long development cycle for footwear manufacturing, the brands that have recently launched U.S. based manufacturing projects and partnerships are likely a result of this post-pandemic push.

“The brands just are relieved and feel like it’s great timing with tariffs and other challenges they’re having to deal with,” Harward told FN in January. “I think we’re just starting to see a new wave because of that.”

In the meantime, however, Rick Helfenbein, independent consultant and former chairman, president, and CEO of the AAFA, told FN in an email that retailers and brands should not be quick to react.

Retailers and brands should look closely at their sourcing portfolios to be sure they are diversified,” Helfenbein said. “At the same time, they should remain (reasonably) calm because Trump 2.0 bears little resemblance to the last version. This group is business savvy, and they are highly unlikely to tank the economy over varied trade deficits – that are not necessarily the core of our overall economic issues.”

Helfenbein added: “More than likely, the 10% tariffs may stick as the main goal, and the other (higher) numbers will dissipate over time (and negotiation). The first day after a mud storm is always the hardest.”